A Pivotal Election for America’s Identity—and the Middle East
As America votes, the Middle East prepares for the fallout of a high-stakes election set to shape global stability.
With the November 5 U.S. presidential election drawing near, America stands at a crossroads, grappling with two contrasting visions for its future. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a fierce contest that could reshape the nation’s identity and reverberate around the world, particularly in the turbulent Middle East.
Recent polling shows just how close the race has become. Where Harris once held the lead, her advantage has all but evaporated as Trump gains ground among key demographic groups, particularly Black and Hispanic men. The former President Barack Obama has been vocal about rallying these communities behind Harris, underscoring that this election’s outcome may well depend on their support. As Americans prepare to make their choice, they should recognize the profound implications of this decision—not just for their country, but for the world.
Trump has doubled down on a populist platform that prioritizes national security and immigration control, proposing aggressive measures to expand border security and tighten immigration laws. Meanwhile, Harris faces the dual challenge of persuading voters to embrace not only her policies but also the notion of a female commander-in-chief. Her appeal for unity has resonated with segments of the electorate, but she will need a decisive turnout from Democratic strongholds to secure victory.
This election’s significance is not confined to American shores. The Middle East, a region where U.S. foreign policy has long wielded enormous influence, is poised to feel the ripple effects of America’s choice. The Biden administration, while not without its critics, has generally pursued a path of diplomatic engagement and coalition-building. Harris is likely to continue in this vein, advocating for dialogue and multilateral solutions to conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and beyond.
However, Trump’s return to office would signal a shift in tone. His first term was marked by a confrontational approach, exemplified by moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and imposing stringent sanctions on Iran. His rhetoric often emphasized an “America First” stance that prioritized U.S. interests while sidelining long-standing diplomatic norms. Should he reclaim the presidency, it is probable he would adopt a hardline posture toward Iran, perhaps even ramping up military and economic pressures that could destabilize the region further. For Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel, this approach might align with their strategic goals. But for Iran, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories, a more aggressive U.S. policy could be the spark that ignites broader conflicts.
Middle Eastern leaders are watching closely, aware that America’s next president will play a decisive role in shaping regional dynamics. Trump’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020 is a stark reminder of how far his administration was willing to go. A second Trump term could very well mean heightened tensions, with Tehran potentially ramping up its nuclear program and reinforcing its support for proxies in Gaza and Lebanon. Conversely, Harris’s approach is expected to favor diplomacy, likely seeking to renew talks with Iran and mediate the Israel-Palestine conflict through alliances and international partnerships. However, diplomacy alone is no easy fix. The Middle East’s intricate web of alliances and historical grievances requires more than rhetoric; it demands a nuanced and strategic approach that recognizes the complexity of the region.
This election, therefore, is about more than just American domestic issues; it is about America’s role as a global leader and the moral responsibility it carries. The Founding Fathers spoke of liberty, justice, and the pursuit of happiness, but these ideals carry little weight if not reflected in foreign policy that upholds peace and stability. In the Middle East, America’s choices can make the difference between war and peace, between hope and despair.
Final Note …
As the late Justice Scalia might have observed, the principles of democracy and the rule of law are only as sturdy as the commitment of those who practice them. And as Americans go to the polls, they must consider not just the candidate who promises the most but the one who embodies the values that define America. The stakes are monumental, both at home and abroad, as America faces a choice that will shape its destiny and impact lives far beyond its borders.