A Fragile Truce in Doha

Can Qatar Deliver Peace for the Congo?

The formal signing ceremony of the Declaration of Principles in Doha.

In Doha’s mirrored halls, far from the dust and misery of eastern Congo, two men shook hands this weekend. One represented the Democratic Republic of Congo; the other, the M23 rebel group that has seized cities, airports, and thousands of lives. They signed a Declaration of Principles, pledging to halt attacks, refrain from hate propaganda, and stop seizing new territory.

On paper, it is progress. A final peace agreement is promised by August 18, with initial steps by July 29. Qatar, which spent months quietly mediating since April, is being praised by the African Union as delivering a “milestone.”

But Congo has seen this before.

A War That Never Ends

For decades, the mineral-rich east has been a graveyard of peace accords. Lusaka in 1999. Sun City in 2003. Goma in 2009. Nairobi in 2013. Each deal failed. Each produced new rebellions. The M23 itself was born from the ashes of a broken promise sixteen years ago.

The current crisis erupted when M23 fighters swept through Goma, Bukavu, and key transport hubs earlier this year, displacing hundreds of thousands. Congo’s government insists the rebels must withdraw. Yet in Doha, M23 negotiator Benjamin Mbonimpa coolly noted that no such withdrawal was written into the deal.

This is the same fragile dance Congo has performed for years: ink on paper, gunfire on the ground.

Minerals and Motives

Look deeper, and you find the real currency of this war is not territory. It is cobalt, tantalum, lithium, and gold—the minerals powering electric vehicles, smartphones, and the global energy transition.

That is why the United States is suddenly leaning in. Washington has hosted separate talks between Congo and Rwanda, pressing for what it calls a “durable peace.” President Donald Trump was unusually blunt about why. He wants American firms—not Chinese ones—to dominate Congo’s mineral supply chain. Last month, Rwanda’s and Congo’s foreign ministers signed a deal at the White House. Trump even invited President Félix Tshisekedi to follow up.

For Congolese activists, the message is bitterly clear. “They don’t see us,” one told me. “They see cobalt.”

Qatar’s Calculated Bet

So what does Qatar want from this?

The Gulf state has built a reputation as a nimble mediator, hosting negotiations from Gaza to Afghanistan. Congo represents a new frontier for Doha’s quiet diplomacy. Unlike former colonial powers, it has no historical baggage in Africa. It brings neutrality—and perhaps a credibility no African neighbor can offer.

Extracting even a minimal declaration from Congo and M23 is a diplomatic win. But mediation is not a performance. Without sustained follow-through, Doha risks becoming just another stage in Congo’s long theater of failed peace. Prestige will not save civilians if the fighting resumes.

Obstacles No Agreement Can Avoid

Even with the best intentions, peace faces hard realities.

M23 occupies valuable urban and mining zones it will not relinquish without guarantees. The Congolese state cannot afford to appear weak by legitimizing rebellion. Rwanda, long accused of backing M23 despite official denials, must be part of any solution—or it will remain part of the problem.

And then there is justice. Eastern Congo is littered with mass graves. Survivors of massacres and sexual violence still wait for accountability. Yet most peace deals in Congo trade justice for expediency, granting amnesty to warlords who should face trial.

Without justice, peace is only a pause.

A Fragile Hope

So do I dismiss Doha’s Declaration? No. Even the briefest ceasefire saves lives. Every day without shelling means fewer families fleeing their homes, fewer children growing up in fear.

But I have learned to be cautious. In Congo, peace is not made in luxury hotels. It is built painfully, day by day, in villages scarred by mistrust and violence.

If this agreement is to hold, it will require more than signatures. It will demand sustained pressure on both Congo and M23. It will demand regional powers—especially Rwanda and Uganda—finally stop fueling the conflict. It will require Washington to see beyond cobalt and lithium and invest in Congo’s people, not just its resources.

And yes, it will demand Qatar stay the course. Hosting talks is the easy part. Ensuring compliance is the hard work that comes after the cameras leave.

Congo deserves a peace that lasts. Whether Doha marks a turning point or just another false dawn depends on what happens next—not in Qatar, not in Washington, but on the ground in Goma, Bukavu, and the villages still waiting for the sound of guns to fall silent.

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Nawaf Al-Thani is Editor-in-Chief of Polistratics and a former defense diplomat.

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